071
FXUS64 KJAN 070846
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS STILL
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER OUR REGION WITH ITS AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS KNOCKED OUR PWATS
DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS, DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION MAY GET AND EARLY START AND LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR BUT AWAY FROM CONVECTION
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOWER 100FS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR CWA BUT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN MOST
ZONES. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOVER
OVER NORTH MS, THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BECAUSE
OF THIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 WILL
SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS
WEST OF THE MS RIVE, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA, SEEING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH POPS AROUND 40%. LOOKING AHEAD
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE COVERAGE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE T-STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE HEAT THREAT, AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL PEAK
PEAK IN THE LOW 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS PEAKING IN THE MID
70S, WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS. SEVERAL AREAS
ACROSS THE DELTA AND SOUTH OF I-20 COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH
105 DEGREES. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY COULD
HAVE AN AFFECT ON HOW HIGH HEAT INDEX READINGS COULD GET. WILL
REASSESS HEAT TRENDS DURING THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A "LIMITED" HEAT GRAPHIC MAY BE NEEDED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST BY GUIDANCE TO REBUILD, AND
THIS SHOULD LESSEN CONVECTIVE RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING HEAT
STRESS TO INTENSIFY. ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR
LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY LOWER-END SEVERE THREATS ON A DAILY BASIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 84 TUESDAY
EVENING. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED TSRA AT HKS-JAN-MEI WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE UNTIL 10Z WHEN A BRIEF
PERIOD 10Z-13Z WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN TSRA MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. AWAY
FROM ANY TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 73 90 73 / 20 20 40 10
MERIDIAN 92 73 91 73 / 30 10 30 10
VICKSBURG 91 73 91 75 / 30 20 50 10
HATTIESBURG 93 74 93 75 / 20 10 40 10
NATCHEZ 92 73 92 75 / 30 20 40 10
GREENVILLE 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 10
GREENWOOD 91 72 92 74 / 30 20 50 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
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