121
FXUS64 KJAN 090520 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS (LIMITED TO ELEVATED) OF HEAT WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL HUMID AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER, ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY NEED LIFT ASSISTANCE FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM EVENING CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, WE'RE
SEEING MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FOCUSED OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD MANAGE TO MOVE IN OR
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SPARSE BY JULY STANDARDS.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THU-
FRI AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ACCOMPANYING
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE AN INCREASING HEAT DANGER RISK WITH
H850 TEMPS APPROACH 21 DEG C AND LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THIS THREAT WITH
A HEAT DANGER GRAPHIC AND COORDINATE WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
AREAS CONCERNING ANY HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCES THAT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A HAD A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND SENDING A
BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR AREA IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME, AND THIS COULD
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. ALONG
WITH THIS, THE HEAT WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW DANGEROUS LEVELS. FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY, A TYPICAL MID SUMMER REGIME WITH CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL FOCUSED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXIST. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
OVERALL, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS, MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR, COULD YIELD A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AROUND DAY BREAK AT SITES WHERE OBSERVED.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BACK TO VFR STATUS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION . POSSIBLE IN AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO CALM. THESE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 93 74 94 75 / 30 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 94 76 93 76 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 94 75 94 76 / 20 0 40 10
NATCHEZ 94 75 94 75 / 10 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 94 76 94 77 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 75 94 76 / 30 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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