827
FXUS64 KJAN 231720 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL ALLOW
FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND THE "LIMITED" RISK WAS EXTENDED FURTHER NORTH. LIKEWISE,
THE "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WAS REMOVED.
REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES, THE SLOWLY MEANDERING TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA REMAINS JUST OFF OF THE GULF COAST AND CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
TOWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DECENT RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 30-55%) ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON HOW HIGH OUR
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD GET.
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND 105 TO 110
DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPANDING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL LIKELY PUSH US BACK INTO ELEVATED AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT STRESS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE BY NEXT THURSDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
DUE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND NOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION, FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
VFR/MVFR AT AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND DAY BREAK WILL AGAIN YIELD A 1-3 HOUR
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WHERE OBSERVED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 3 KNOTS
TO CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 95 75 95 / 20 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 95 74 96 / 10 10 0 10
VICKSBURG 76 94 76 95 / 10 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 75 96 74 97 / 20 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 94 76 95 / 30 20 10 10
GREENWOOD 75 94 75 95 / 50 20 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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