582
FXUS64 KJAN 231852
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
CAPE,PWAT AND DEWPOINT VALUES AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL HELP LIMIT THE DANGEROUS, KEEPING
HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW PRODUCT CRITERIA. THAT SAID, HEAT INDICES
WILL PEAK OUR AROUND 105 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH PORTIONS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY POTENTIALLY REACHING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES NEARING 108 DEGREES..
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND 105
TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPANDING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY PUSH US BACK INTO ELEVATED AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT
STRESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS WE
GET CLOSER. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY NEXT THURSDAY. /KP/CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
DUE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND NOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION, FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
VFR/MVFR AT AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND DAY BREAK WILL AGAIN YIELD A 1-3 HOUR
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WHERE OBSERVED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 3 KNOTS
TO CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 95 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 76 94 76 95 / 10 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 97 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 74 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 75 93 76 94 / 20 20 10 10
GREENWOOD 75 93 75 94 / 40 20 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/CR/19
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