385
FXUS64 KJAN 240532
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
CAPE,PWAT AND DEWPOINT VALUES AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL HELP LIMIT THE DANGEROUS, KEEPING
HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW PRODUCT CRITERIA. THAT SAID, HEAT INDICES
WILL PEAK OUR AROUND 105 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH PORTIONS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY POTENTIALLY REACHING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES NEARING 108 DEGREES..
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND 105
TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPANDING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY PUSH US BACK INTO ELEVATED AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT
STRESS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS WE
GET CLOSER. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY NEXT THURSDAY. /KP/CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 0524Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARE THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z,
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO MVFR STATUS AS A STRATUS CLOUD DECK
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
15Z. AFTER 15Z, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES AFTER 16Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z AT GWO, GTR AND MEI THAT COULD RESULT IN
LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 95 75 95 75 / 10 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 95 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 93 76 94 76 / 20 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/CR/CR
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