818
FXUS64 KJAN 241720 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND
WORSEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
H-O-T. A STRONG, ZONALLY ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE US
SOUTH FEATURES 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 600 DAM, ESPECIALLY
PRONOUNCED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST. HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION ARE NEAR SEASONAL MAXIMUM VALUES,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
TURNED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
STILL, WESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN.
AS THE RIDGE COMES TO AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SHARPLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
OR EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE
LIMITED BY THE RIDGE ALOFT, BUT A WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MID WEEK AND TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAT AMPLIFYING BENEATH THE RIDGE. TODAY
AND TOMORROW'S "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS WITH 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL YIELD TO "SIGNIFICANT" HEAT STRESS WITH ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE 110
TO 115 RANGE. AS ALWAYS, AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, PLEASE MAKE SURE
LOVED ONES, NEIGHBORS, AND PETS HAVE A COOL PLACE TO SPEND THE HOT
AFTERNOONS AND WARM NIGHTS. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST SITES NOW AT VFR STATUS AND ONLY A
COUPLE STILL AT MVFR. ALL SITES WILL BE TO AND PREVAILING AT VFR
CATEGORIES BY 20Z. CONVECTION WILL BE A BIT MORE SCARCE THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A REDUCTION IN
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY WILL EXIST IF CONVECTION IS INDEED
OBSERVED WITHIN A SITE'S RESPECTED AERODROME. CONVECTION THIS DOES
DEVELOP TODAY, WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO CALM TONIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 94 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 76 94 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 75 96 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 95 76 98 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 75 94 75 97 / 10 30 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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