597
FXUS64 KJAN 251815
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
115 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND AND WILL WORSEN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS WEDGED IN FROM THE
SOUTH. WHILE THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
WILL WASHOUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK IN
THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ITS PRESENCE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS THIS
HAPPENS, ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SINK SOUTH INTO
THE CWA. THUS, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY
BRINGING AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, HIGH
LEVELS OF BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL YIELD A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S,
THEY'LL RANGE MORE IN THE UPPER 90S ON MONDAY, AND UPPER 90S TO JUST
ABOVE 100 TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AT
AND ABOVE 106 ACROSS THE CWA, AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT, A "HEAT ADVISORY" HAS NOW BEEN HOISTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY FROM 11 AM - 9 PM AS INDICES RANGE BETWEEN
106-110 FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ACROSS BOLIVAR, SUNFLOWER, & LEFLORE COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 110 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HERE, AN
"EXTREME HEAT WARNING" HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL
9 PM.
AS THIS DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS INCREASES MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, A
CONTINUATION OF THE "HEAT ADVISORY" INTO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED,
WITH FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" ACROSS THE CWA
LIKELY. THIS WILL BE MESSAGED IN THE LATEST HWO GRAPHIC. HOWEVER AT
THE MOMENT, AN ASSESSMENT OF THE LAYOUT AND CONTINUATION OF HEAT-
RELATED PRODUCTS WILL BE MADE ON A DAILY BASIS. THEREFORE, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE
INFORMATION. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER FEW TO SCATTERED
(FEW-SCT) CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 7-9KFT (MAINLY DURING PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS) AND SOME
INCREASED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-25KFT. A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF GLH,
GWO AND GTR, WITH GTR THE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY (SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10MPH
AND HIGHEST GUSTS UP TO 15MPH). SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT.
/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 95 75 97 / 10 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 94 76 98 / 10 20 0 10
VICKSBURG 76 95 77 97 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 75 96 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 95 76 98 / 10 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 75 95 75 98 / 10 20 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ026>066-
072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
19/DC
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