181
FXUS64 KJAN 271709
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1209 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT HEAT STRESS
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TONIGHT: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE NEAR TERM. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE 597DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE
HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION NEARING NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ALREADY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK JUST
EAST OF OUR CWA BUT DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TODAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TOGETHER HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F IN SPOTS.
A "HEAT ADVISORY" REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS INDICES RANGE BETWEEN 106F-110F. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS CURRENTLY ACROSS BOLIVAR, SUNFLOWER, & LEFLORE COUNTIES WHERE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 110F. HERE, AN "EXTREME
HEAT WARNING" IS IN EFFECT TODAY. /22/
A "HEAT ADVISORY" REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS INDICES RANGE BETWEEN 106F-110F. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CURRENTLY ACROSS BOLIVAR, SUNFLOWER, & LEFLORE
COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 110F.
HERE, AN "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" IS IN EFFECT MONDAY. IN ADDITION, ON
THE LATEST PACKAGE, CONFIDENCE IN INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 110F HAS
INCREASED ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.
THEREFORE, WE'VE EXPANDED THE "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" OVER SOME
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH A "HEAT
ADVISORY" IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ITS PRESENCE ACROSS REGION
AS IT RETREATS WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS
HAPPENS, ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SINK SOUTH INTO
THE CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE HEAT. ONE
THING OF NOTE DURING THIS TIME, WHILE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE, THE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION COULD YIELD AN MCS OR TWO AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS OUT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN FUTURE MODEL DATA, AS WE DRAW NEAR TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH MS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 20
MERIDIAN 77 99 77 96 / 20 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 77 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 78 99 78 98 / 10 0 0 20
NATCHEZ 76 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 77 99 78 95 / 0 0 0 30
GREENWOOD 76 99 77 95 / 0 0 0 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026>066-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ028>033-
037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
22/OAJ/DL
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