252
FXUS64 KJAN 292049
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: ADDITIONAL DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED STORMS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY WILL SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FURTHER SOUTH, AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE HEAT
JUST A BIT COMPARED TODAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE MOST PART. /EC/
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK:
INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
TAKE HOLD DUE TO THE SURFACE CONFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FEW DEGREE DIP, THUS MITIGATING HEAT
THREAT CONCERNS. WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING INTO THE AREA OR
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO LOSE MOMENTUM AND STALL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO FINISH
OUT THE PERIOD. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES
DIMNINISH AND HEAT POTENTIALLY REBUILD SOME, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVIING. /OAJ/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AS OF 1726Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CEILINGS TO START
OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 20Z. SEVERAL NORTHERN SITES COULD SEE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
DROP DOWN TO MVFR STATUS BETWEEN 21Z-24Z DUE TO SCATTERED -SHRA
AND -TSRA. AFTER 00Z, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 74 94 / 20 50 30 60
MERIDIAN 74 94 74 93 / 30 40 20 50
VICKSBURG 76 93 75 93 / 30 50 10 50
HATTIESBURG 77 94 75 92 / 20 50 40 70
NATCHEZ 76 94 75 94 / 10 50 20 40
GREENVILLE 75 94 74 94 / 30 30 20 40
GREENWOOD 74 95 73 94 / 30 20 10 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ028>033-037>039-
044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>044-047>051-053>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/OAJ/CR
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