473
FXUS64 KJAN 300259
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, THOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BRING LIMITED RELIEF ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO FESTER ALONG THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR BETWEEN MOORHEAD AND WINONA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, BUT HAVE DROPPED LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3". THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE STALLED FRONT REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA, WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE RAIN IS OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
FRESHENED UP THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
AND TO ADD PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: ADDITIONAL DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED STORMS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY WILL SUPPORT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FURTHER SOUTH, AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE HEAT
JUST A BIT COMPARED TODAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE MOST PART. /EC/
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK:
INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
TAKE HOLD DUE TO THE SURFACE CONFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT, WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FEW DEGREE DIP, THUS MITIGATING HEAT
THREAT CONCERNS. WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING INTO THE AREA OR
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO LOSE MOMENTUM AND STALL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO FINISH
OUT THE PERIOD. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AND HEAT POTENTIALLY REBUILD SOME, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVING. /OAJ/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
SCATTERED SHRA AND TS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
PRIMARILY FOCUSED AROUND AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME FRAMES.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS OR WIND GUSTS AT
ANY IMPACTED SITE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 74 94 / 20 50 30 60
MERIDIAN 74 94 74 93 / 30 40 20 50
VICKSBURG 76 93 75 93 / 20 50 10 50
HATTIESBURG 77 94 75 92 / 10 50 40 70
NATCHEZ 76 94 75 94 / 0 50 20 40
GREENVILLE 75 94 74 94 / 40 30 20 40
GREENWOOD 74 95 73 94 / 30 20 10 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>044-047>051-053>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/EC
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