569
FXUS64 KJAN 300809
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BRING LIMITED RELIEF
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN BOLIVAR COUNTY TO SOUTHERN
LOWNDES COUNTY. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED THE LAST OF A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT, PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA
AND BECOME NEARLY DIFFUSE TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WAS NOTED CENTERED
TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN BETWEEN.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED OUR CWA
LOCKED BETWEEN A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH TO
OUR EAST. THESE FEATURES WON'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT. SO, THE
FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT OUR NORTHEAST WILL SEE A LITTLE REPRIEVE
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 105F AND 110F AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10AM-7PM FOR THIS AREA. /22/
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK: INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL TAKE HOLD DUE TO THE
SURFACE CONFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WHICH COULD
PROVIDE A FEW DEGREE DIP, THUS MITIGATING HEAT THREAT CONCERNS. WITH
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES MOVING INTO THE AREA OR DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AND HEAT
POTENTIALLY REBUILD SOME, BUT REMAIN BELOW WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED ISOLD -SHRA THAT WL COME IN VCTY OF GTR BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE, ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/TSRA WL
DEVELOP AND AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MAINLY THIS AFTN. AWAY FROM
TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 75 93 75 / 50 20 70 40
MERIDIAN 95 74 93 74 / 60 40 80 50
VICKSBURG 94 75 94 76 / 60 30 60 30
HATTIESBURG 96 75 93 75 / 50 30 80 30
NATCHEZ 95 75 95 75 / 40 20 30 10
GREENVILLE 94 75 95 77 / 30 10 50 40
GREENWOOD 95 75 94 75 / 20 10 70 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>044-047>051-053>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
22/OAJ/22
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