877
FXUS64 KJAN 140530
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1230 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
ISOLATED CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (597-598DM) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY WARM THERMAL PROFILES AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SQUASHED AND
SHUNTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE HUMIDITY MAY DROP A TOUCH INTO FRIDAY, BUT
OVERALL MESSAGING OF DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS THE SAME. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE INHERITED HEAT HWO GRAPHIC AND SUBSEQUENT
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STAY COOL AND HYDRATED AND
CHECK ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
SOME OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
PEAKING INTO THE LOW 100S ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILE CLIMATOLOGY (22C TO 25C AT 850MB) INDICATE
POTENTIAL ANALOGS INTO THE LOW 100S (101F TO 103F AND MEDIAN
AROUND 102F), WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES EXCEEDING THAT. REGARDLESS,
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, EVEN IF WE MIX A LITTLE
MORE EFFICIENTLY AT TIMES. SOME PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK AND SUBSEQUENT EXTREME HEAT
WARNING, BUT THIS FOCUS LOOKS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME TO HOLD OFF
JUST YET. THE ONGOING HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LIMITED RELIEF AT NIGHT.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
ONLY PERIPHERAL AREAS SEEING SCARCE SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE,
MAINLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME RELAXATION OF THE STOUT RIDGE
WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEEPER MOISTURE, INCREASED CONVERGENCE FROM FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD MAY CAUSE SOME BETTER RAIN COVERAGE INTO EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 99 75 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 99 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 98 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 100 76 101 76 / 0 0 10 10
NATCHEZ 100 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 100 76 102 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 99 75 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/DL
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