813
FXUS64 KJAN 160541
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1241 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE NEAR 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST
MIDWEEK REMAINS OUR MESSAGE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF CURRENT VERY HOT
AIR TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 20-23 C ARE SUPPORTING
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 WITH DEEP MIXING IN OUR REGION. THE
HUMIDITY IS LESSENED BY MIXING AS WELL, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP
DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 105-115 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE AREA COULD EXCEED 110 DEGREE HEAT INDICES TOMORROW, AND A
PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.
BY MIDWEEK, THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, LETTING A TROUGH PATTERN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THERE SHOULD BE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT LEAST IN THE FORM OF
"COOLER" AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THURSDAY ONWARD, MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 100 77 100 76 / 0 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 99 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 101 78 100 77 / 10 10 20 10
NATCHEZ 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 102 80 102 78 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 100 79 101 76 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/NF/KP
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