767
FXUS64 KJAN 161811 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN IT'S
POSITION OVER OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A HOT LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS (E.G., H850 NEAR 24 DEG C) WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 104 DEG F IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION,
AND THE 100 TO 103 DEG F RANGE ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN, AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE HOT
ENOUGH TO MEET EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA, IN SPITE OF GREATER
MIXING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT HEAT GRAPHIC
AND UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT STRONG WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE,
AND ALLOW FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES IN OUR AREA.
THIS COULD BE A TIME TO MONITOR FOR MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
ISOLATED SHRA OR EVEN TSRA BEFORE 00Z EAST OF INTERSTATE 55, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND FROM A WEST OR NORTHWEST DIRECTION TO
START THE PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 101 77 100 76 / 10 10 30 10
VICKSBURG 99 78 100 77 / 0 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 102 78 101 78 / 20 10 30 20
NATCHEZ 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 101 80 103 78 / 0 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 100 78 101 75 / 0 0 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072-073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LAZ007-015-023-024.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ008-009-016-
025-026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
ARZ074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ075.
EC/NF
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