749
FXUS64 KJAN 180606 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
106 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL INCREASE, AND THE RISK FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL DECREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING, WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT,
WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN IT'S
POSITION OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A HOT LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS (E.G., H850 T UP TO 24 DEG C) WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 104 DEG F IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION,
AND THE 100 TO 103 DEG F RANGE ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN, AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE HOT
ENOUGH TO MEET EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IN SPITE OF GREATER
MIXING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT HEAT GRAPHICS
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. ADDITIONAL HEAT
RELATED MESSAGING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT STRONG WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF SUPPRESSING AND WEAKENING THE RIDGE, AND THUS
ALLOWING FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES IN OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION, WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW AND LAPSE RATES BEING
FORECAST, THIS COULD BE A TIME TO MONITOR FOR MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, ESPECIALLY PER RECENT NCAR AI-
NWP GUIDANCE IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING, THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL TOTALS 27+, LIFTED
INDEX OF NEAR -2C AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ANY STORM THAT DOES
MANAGE TO ORGANIZE AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP COULD OVERACHIEVE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF FUTURE PRODUCTS.
/EC/KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS AFTN BUT AWAY FROM TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 100 76 99 / 30 30 10 20
MERIDIAN 75 100 74 98 / 40 40 20 30
VICKSBURG 78 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 10
HATTIESBURG 77 99 75 99 / 40 60 30 50
NATCHEZ 77 100 76 99 / 10 10 0 10
GREENVILLE 78 102 78 100 / 10 10 20 20
GREENWOOD 76 101 77 98 / 10 10 10 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/KP/22
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