203
FXUS64 KJAN 191944
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS A PERSISTENT CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STEADY MOISTURE CONTENT (AS SEEN BY
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON) IS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TOMORROW. ANALYZED SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 5000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI WHERE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SUPPORT THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY IN THAT ZONE, WITH
ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DCAPE
IS 1100+ J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SO ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION WILL CARRY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
MICROBURSTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE, AND A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
HEAT REMAINS DANGEROUS. SEVERAL SITES CONTINUE TO REACH AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 100 DEGREES, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 110-
115 DEGREES. GRADUAL EASING IS EXPECTED AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DRIER AIR EDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL AFFECT SITES THIS AFTERNOON
BRIEFLY LOWERING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 30
MERIDIAN 75 99 74 97 / 20 20 20 30
VICKSBURG 77 98 76 99 / 10 10 10 30
HATTIESBURG 76 99 75 98 / 30 20 20 50
NATCHEZ 76 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 30
GREENVILLE 79 100 76 99 / 10 10 40 10
GREENWOOD 77 98 74 97 / 10 20 40 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026>033-037>039-
044>046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-015-023.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ008-009-
016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ075.
NF/KP
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