307
FXUS64 KJAN 041810
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
110 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING WEST
ACROSS HWY 84. THIS IS DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGING A RENEWED
SURGE OF MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX
READING VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105-110 DEGREES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BRIEFLY EXCEED
110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
GRAPHIC FOR TODAY AND AN "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LIKEWISE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST AR AND ALL OF NORTHEAST LA, UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 84. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S. AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTH. ALTHOUGH HREF FOG GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW LOW
PROBABILITIES (AROUND 10-20%) OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE REFS TO SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. FOG GRAPHICS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT HIGHLIGHTED
BY HREF DENSE FOG GUIDANCE, HOWEVER SHALLOW PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AFTER DAWN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER,
THOUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN
BACK AGAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIMITED TO ELEVATED HEAT
STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO PEAK IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD HELP KEEP PARTS OF
OUR CWA UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. REGARDLESS, AN HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SATURDAY. AS WE GO
BEYOND SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING COULD BE INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES/ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAT TRENDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE MID WEEK AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 HEADING
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE (70-85%) FOR SHRA AND TSRA AT HBG AND PIB AND MEDIUM
CHANCE (50%) AT JAN, HKS AND HEZ. FOR HIGH CHANCE AREAS, ADDED SHRA
WITH VCTS AND PROB30 FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS COULD BE DOWN TO LIFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH BRIEF
GUSTS OF WIND (30-40MPH). LEFT ONLY LOW PROBS/PROB30 AT SITES WITH
MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA. GIVEN THE RAIN TOTALS, MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY LOWER VISIBILITY
CONTINUES TOMORROW MORNING. KEPT MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST CENTRAL
SITES, WITH IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT PIB AND HBG.
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR/VFR BEGIN AFTER 05/14-16Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE WILL REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN SITES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/DC/SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 94 73 97 / 20 50 20 20
MERIDIAN 73 94 73 99 / 20 50 20 30
VICKSBURG 72 93 73 96 / 20 40 10 10
HATTIESBURG 73 93 73 95 / 30 60 20 40
NATCHEZ 72 92 72 95 / 30 60 20 20
GREENVILLE 75 98 75 100 / 10 20 10 10
GREENWOOD 73 98 73 99 / 10 20 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-
059>062.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>054-059>062.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/CR/DC
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