174
FXUS64 KJAN 051126
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: AREAS OF FOG ARE FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER
PINE BELT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL PERSIST TO
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT
AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ENHANCED STORM COVERAGE FRIDAY WILL BE
RELAXING A BIT TODAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS AND SLIGHTLY LESS DANGEROUS
HEAT MAINLY IN THE PINE BELT REGION.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT: QUICK AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SENT A FRONT TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S DEG C,
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS,
AND MOST LIKELY ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. IN ADDITION, A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK HAS EMERGED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. IF STORM
DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE IMMINENT, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE
RISK LEVEL INCREASE TO SLIGHT (2 OF 5) AS THERE IS RECENT
PRECEDENCE FOR STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE WITH THE HOTTER DAYS AND
ANOMALOUSLY HOT H850 TEMPS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PLANTED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, SO DON'T EXPECT SIGNS FOR EARLY
FALL WEATHER TO SHOW UP ANY TIME SOON. INSTEAD, WE CAN EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL LIMITED TO ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT THREATS AND REDUCED
RAINFALL COVERAGE MOSTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR PREVAILS. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EVIDENT THIS
MORNING SOUTH OF I-20. THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP AROUND 14-15Z. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 73 97 74 / 40 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 95 73 100 72 / 30 0 20 10
VICKSBURG 93 72 96 73 / 30 0 10 10
HATTIESBURG 93 73 96 73 / 40 10 40 10
NATCHEZ 92 72 95 73 / 50 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 99 75 101 75 / 20 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 99 74 100 73 / 10 10 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-059>062.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/EC/SAS20
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