527
FXUS64 KJAN 061513
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1013 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
A BAND OF MORNING SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO LOSE STEAM ACROSS SOUTH
MS AS CLOUD TOPS WARM. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING
TO MIX OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND CENTRAL LA. ELSEWHERE, THERE
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SETTING UP ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. WARMING MAY BE AIDED BY SOME
DEGREE OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT IS
SLIPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. ULTIMATELY, WE'LL BE
WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THAT FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE GREATER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS
COMPARED TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL REGIME, AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL STORMS WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE EVALUATING THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
LABOR DAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF STINT OF DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SO AN
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FURTHER
UPDATES TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: AREAS OF FOG ARE FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER
PINE BELT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL PERSIST TO
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT
AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. QUICK AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SENT A FRONT TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME ADDED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S DEG C, AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS. A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK HAS EMERGED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. IF STORM
DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE IMMINENT, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE RISK
LEVEL INCREASE TO SLIGHT (2 OF 5) AS THERE IS RECENT PRECEDENCE
FOR STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE WITH THE HOTTER DAYS AND ANOMALOUSLY HOT
H850 TEMPS.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PLANTED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, SO DON'T EXPECT SIGNS FOR
EARLY FALL WEATHER TO SHOW UP ANY TIME SOON. INSTEAD, WE CAN
EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIMITED TO ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT THREATS AND
REDUCED RAINFALL COVERAGE MOSTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR PREVAILS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-20. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AROUND 3Z.
THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/VIS SOUTH
OF I-20, BUT GIVEN THIS HAS STRUGGLED TO MATERIALIZE THE PAST
COUPLE MORNINGS, HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 98 74 98 73 / 30 20 10 0
MERIDIAN 99 73 99 73 / 20 20 10 10
VICKSBURG 98 74 99 72 / 30 20 10 0
HATTIESBURG 96 74 98 74 / 20 20 30 20
NATCHEZ 96 74 98 73 / 20 20 20 10
GREENVILLE 101 75 99 72 / 40 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 100 73 98 72 / 50 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-
059>062.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ055>058-063>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/EC/SAS
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