833
FXUS64 KJAN 061717
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
A BAND OF MORNING SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO LOSE STEAM ACROSS SOUTH
MS AS CLOUD TOPS WARM. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING
TO MIX OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND CENTRAL LA. ELSEWHERE, THERE
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SETTING UP ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY. WARMING MAY BE AIDED BY SOME
DEGREE OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT IS
SLIPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. ULTIMATELY, WE'LL BE
WATCHING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THAT FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE GREATER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS
COMPARED TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL REGIME, AND SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL STORMS WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WE ARE EVALUATING THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
LABOR DAY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF STINT OF DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SO AN
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FURTHER
UPDATES TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: AREAS OF FOG ARE FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER
PINE BELT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL PERSIST TO
AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT
AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. QUICK AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SENT A FRONT TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME ADDED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S DEG C, AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS. A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK HAS EMERGED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. IF STORM
DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE IMMINENT, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE RISK
LEVEL INCREASE TO SLIGHT (2 OF 5) AS THERE IS RECENT PRECEDENCE
FOR STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE WITH THE HOTTER DAYS AND ANOMALOUSLY HOT
H850 TEMPS.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
PLANTED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, SO DON'T EXPECT SIGNS FOR
EARLY FALL WEATHER TO SHOW UP ANY TIME SOON. INSTEAD, WE CAN
EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIMITED TO ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT THREATS AND
REDUCED RAINFALL COVERAGE MOSTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SCATTERED SHRA AND TS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING TODAY, WITH BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT POSSIBLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 98 73 95 / 20 10 0 10
MERIDIAN 73 99 73 94 / 20 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 74 99 72 97 / 20 10 0 10
HATTIESBURG 74 98 74 94 / 20 30 20 40
NATCHEZ 74 98 73 97 / 20 20 10 10
GREENVILLE 75 99 72 99 / 20 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 73 98 72 97 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/EC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page