540
FXUS64 KJAN 071721
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1221 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO NORTH AND PARTS OF EAST MS
THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT IS NOW STALLING
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING IT PULLS AWAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL WELL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S WITH PW IN
THE 1.7-2.1 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS STILL INCREASED FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DCAPE IS ONCE AGAIN QUITE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE AREA WITH GREATER OVERLAP OF
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND HIGH DCAPE, THIS PLACES US IN A
SIMILAR REGIME AS YESTERDAY WHERE WET MICROBURSTS COULD OCCUR WITH
LITTLE ADVANCED NOTICE. ONE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS CAM GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY DEPICTING LESS COVERAGE OF QPF GIVEN THE INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR. SO THIS PLACES SOME DOUBT ON THERE BEING ANY RAIN AT
ALL IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG I-20 WEST OF JACKSON. FURTHER
NORTH, WE HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. TO SUMMARIZE ALL
OF THIS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK, BUT IT IS
CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN WITH NORTHWARD/WESTWARD EXTENT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. OTHERWISE, HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TO BE A
CONCERN OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN, WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE 105-110F RANGE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE AREA TODAY. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT: A WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
OUR REGION. THERE COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. THE MORE CONFIDENT AXIS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ROUGHLY IN THE NATCHEZ-HATTIESBURG CORRIDOR, BUT THERE IS A THREAT
FOR STORMS THAT EXISTS UP TO ABOUT I-20. SPC'S DEPICTION OF A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN HOW HOT BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL BE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULDN'T PERSIST ALL THAT LONG INTO THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. OTHERWISE, THE WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A
BRIEF SPELL OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER PARTS OF NORTH MS AND
AR, POTENTIALLY ENCROACHING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE
DAY. WHILE THIS COULD HELP TO LIMIT HEAT INDICES THE FARTHER
NORTH ONE GOES IN OUR AREA, IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HOT
IN THESE AREAS NEVERTHELESS. AND FURTHER SOUTH, THE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN; THUS, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK: THE WEAK FRONT WILL WASH
OUT, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERING AGAIN AREAWIDE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY HOT EACH
DAY, AND IT'S POSSIBLE HEAT STRESS POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES IN SOME AREAS, THOUGH FORECAST HEAT
INDICES ARE LOOKING MORE MARGINAL BEYOND TUESDAY THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, INITIALLY FOCUSED MIDWEEK MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH MS AND LA,
BUT EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /DL/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH/EAST MS,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS AND GUSTS TO 50 KT. VERY
BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 96 73 94 / 20 10 0 10
MERIDIAN 73 93 72 94 / 20 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 74 97 73 94 / 10 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 74 94 73 93 / 40 30 10 60
NATCHEZ 74 97 73 95 / 20 40 10 20
GREENVILLE 73 100 75 98 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 73 97 73 96 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
034>036-040>043-047>066-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>028-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>061.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/EC
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