265
FXUS64 KJAN 080555
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
A CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN TWO AREAS -
ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH MS AND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP GIVEN THE
AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS WHERE
EVEN FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE MORE SPARSE. DCAPE REMAINS HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WET MICROBURSTS RESULTING IN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME STORMS, WITH GREATER ODDS FURTHER
SOUTH WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS GREATER. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: THE REMNANT SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
STALL AND WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A SOUTHEAST US
SURFACE RIDGE BECOMING A BIGGER PLAYER. THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH
FAVORS THE ADVECTION OF A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND...LESS HOT...AIR
MASS BEING WEDGED AROUND THE APPALACHIANS. WHAT WOULD THIS MEAN
FOR US? TEMPERATURES THAT ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT AS HIGH
AS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL HEAT
INDICES, WITH SITES LESS LIKELY TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EACH DAY. AS THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW, WE HAVE CLIPPED THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO ONLY COVER OUR WESTERN HALF. AND IT'S POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT ALL. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATER, FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS TOMORROW
THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY: ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT STALL BEFORE
REACHING OUR AREA. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH
OF THIS FEATURE, RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE BACK
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE HOT, GREATER
PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE HEAT
ENOUGH TO AVOID CRITICAL HEAT STRESS THRESHOLDS BEING MET THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 10-15Z BUT
PROBABILITIES WERE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z NEAR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 73 95 72 / 20 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 94 73 95 72 / 10 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 96 73 94 73 / 30 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 93 73 92 73 / 30 10 40 10
NATCHEZ 96 73 94 73 / 50 10 20 0
GREENVILLE 100 74 97 73 / 30 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 97 73 96 72 / 30 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-
059>061.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/DL/KP
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