444
FXUS64 KJAN 081726 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO LIMITED HEAT THREATS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL BRING A
CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE DANGEROUS HEAT THREAT ALIGNMENT FOR
TODAY. THE GREATER HEAT DANGER THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED A HEAT ADVISORY WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND IT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY, A SLIGHT MID LEVEL WARMING
AND REDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAKES TODAY'S AIRMASS NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED, AND THIS MEANS THAT
THE SEMI-PERMANENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER THAT A
SUBTLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME, AND WHILE THIS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE HEAT, IT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE BULK OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE RE- INTENSIFYING TO PRIOR LEVELS, AND
THEN SOME, WHICH MEANS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACING ADDITIONAL HEAT
STRESS CONCERNS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
OVERALL, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NAMELY THE
PINE BELT REGION THIS AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS. HOWEVER THESE
WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK TO VFR CATEGORIES ONCE CONVECTION
PASSES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5- 10 KNOTS, AND WILL SUBSIDE TO CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 KNOTS TONIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 95 72 96 / 10 0 0 20
MERIDIAN 72 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 73 95 72 95 / 10 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 73 93 73 93 / 0 10 10 60
NATCHEZ 73 94 72 94 / 10 10 0 50
GREENVILLE 74 97 74 97 / 10 10 0 10
GREENWOOD 73 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
19
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