804
FXUS64 KJAN 081826
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
126 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER TODAY'S "ELEVATED" HEAT THREAT, "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS WEEK, DISRUPTED BY
INCREASING DAILY RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A BROAD, ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITES OVER THE
MID- SOUTH REGION TODAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND OUR CWA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW IS HELPING TO INITIATE
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THEN DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES FOR TOMORROW. THE HEAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WON'T
BREAK, BUT WE SHOULD SEE TODAY'S PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110
DEGREES NUDGE LOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR TOMORROW. THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS,
AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MAY BE THE LAST HEADLINE FOR A
FEW DAYS. "LIMITED" THREAT CONDITIONS FOR HEAT STRESS WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 105 WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THURSDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERMIT GREATER NORTHWARD SPREAD
OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH. EVEN IF THE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA, STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION OR FORECAST AREA. PROSPECTS IMPROVE FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAKES HEAT MESSAGING LESS CERTAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE TIMING OF HEAT MESSAGING AFTER
SATURDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
OVERALL, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NAMELY THE
PINE BELT REGION THIS AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR STATUS. HOWEVER THESE
WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK TO VFR CATEGORIES ONCE CONVECTION
PASSES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 5- 10 KNOTS, AND WILL SUBSIDE TO CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 KNOTS TONIGHT. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 96 72 96 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 72 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 73 95 73 95 / 10 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 73 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 60
NATCHEZ 73 95 73 95 / 10 0 0 30
GREENVILLE 75 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 73 97 72 97 / 10 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
06/19
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