517
FXUS64 KJAN 090542
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1242 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
WEEK, DISRUPTED BY INCREASING DAILY RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A BROAD, ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITES OVER THE
MID- SOUTH REGION TODAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND OUR CWA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW IS HELPING TO INITIATE
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THEN DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES FOR TOMORROW. THE HEAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WON'T
BREAK, BUT WE SHOULD SEE TODAY'S PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110
DEGREES NUDGE LOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR TOMORROW. THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS,
AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MAY BE THE LAST HEADLINE FOR A
FEW DAYS. "LIMITED" THREAT CONDITIONS FOR HEAT STRESS WITH PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 105 WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THURSDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERMIT GREATER NORTHWARD SPREAD
OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH. EVEN IF THE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA, STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION OR FORECAST AREA. PROSPECTS IMPROVE FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAKES HEAT MESSAGING LESS CERTAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
SO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE TIMING OF HEAT MESSAGING AFTER
SATURDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD @
ALL TAF SITES. IFR/LIFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE @ SITES HBG/PIB BY
10Z AND DISSIPATE BY 15Z, THEREAFTER RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN 05KTS
SUSTAINED @ ALL SITES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 10 20
MERIDIAN 95 72 96 72 / 0 0 20 10
VICKSBURG 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 10 10
HATTIESBURG 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 60 10
NATCHEZ 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 30 10
GREENVILLE 98 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 97 72 97 72 / 10 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/KP
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