122
FXUS64 KJAN 190217 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
917 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD BACK IN AREAWIDE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONT WITH DRIER AIR,
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES/LESS HEAT INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE 596DAM HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS LARGE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WEAKEN SOME THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TOPPING THE
HIGH TO SPILL OVER ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TO OUR EAST. THE
DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST THAT HAS HELPED HOLD HUMIDITY DOWN THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL SHIFT WEST OF OUR CWA AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105-1108F IN OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
WITH LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105F ELSEWHERE. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED IN OUR
CWA. /22/
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STREAK OF POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20 WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY, POSSIBLY TUESDAY. ELEVATED HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TO
BE ADVERTISED WEST OF I-55 FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL REMAIN
SCARCE, BUT A FEW POPUP SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MOSTLY EAST OF
I-55.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA WORK IN TANDEM TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN,
RELIEVING HEAT STRESS. THIS ALSO MEANS THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH OUR AREA SITUATED BENEATH THE
BASE/THROUGH AXIS OF AN DEEPENING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. TOWARDS LATE NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE WITH 2 SCENARIOS. ONE
SCENARIO IS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS ENOUGH TO PUSH A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA, WHICH LEADS TO LESS HOT CONDITIONS.
THE OTHER, REINFORCES RIDGING, STALLING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD PROBABLY MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE AND COME INTO AGREEMENT
AS WE GET CLOSER. /SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 72 100 72 98 / 0 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 71 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 70 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 70 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 73 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ029>033-038-
039-045-046-051-052.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/NF
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