546
FXUS64 KJAN 210057 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
757 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
EARLY THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ABOVE NORMAL UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SURFACE HEAT, AND IN SPITE OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND GREATER
MIXING, WE'RE STILL SEEING LIMITED TO ELEVATED HEAT DANGER IN THE
NEAR TERM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT IS ON THE WAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THAT ARE MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF
SEPTEMBER.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS WEEK.
FOR MONDAY, PER SPC, THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO OFFICIAL SPC SEVERE
OUTLOOK IN OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE TO SEE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ENTER THE PICTURE FOR A POSSIBLE
MARGINAL RISK AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS MENTIONED, DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH "LESS HOT" TEMPERATURES. OVERALL, WEATHER IMPACTS
SHOULD MOSTLY BE TIED TO EARLY WEEK HEAT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA OR TSRA BEFORE 18Z
MONDAY, AND BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR KHBG, KPIB, AND
KMEI AFTER 18Z. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 96 72 96 / 0 10 20 10
MERIDIAN 72 97 71 96 / 10 20 30 20
VICKSBURG 73 97 72 96 / 0 10 20 10
HATTIESBURG 72 96 72 96 / 10 30 30 20
NATCHEZ 73 97 72 97 / 0 20 10 10
GREENVILLE 76 99 72 96 / 0 10 20 10
GREENWOOD 74 99 71 96 / 0 10 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SAS20/NF
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