106
FXUS64 KJAN 241807
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
107 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM SUMMER IS APPEARING IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
GENERALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL
STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE BROADER
REGION, BUT SPLIT FLOW IS NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERN JET STREAM AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CARRY
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND ADD MORE FLOW AND SHEAR TO THE
ATMOSPHERE. SHORTWAVES MAY BRING SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND
SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER RIDGING OR
TROUGHING WILL BE MORE ESTABLISHED TO ALLOW MUCH. EITHER WAY, THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER WITHOUT CONCERN FOR HUMIDITY CAUSING
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS.
BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE AND A MORE FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWINGING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEING A BIT EARLY IN THE TRANSITIONAL TIME OF YEAR, CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURES IS VERY LOW. OFFICIAL GUIDANCE LEANS
INTO A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT AND
STORMS IN OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF PAINTS THE OTHER
EXTREME OF THE GUIDANCE - A SLOWER LOW CUTTING OFF AROUND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AND REGION (RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST STILL) THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, AS IT
MARKS A CHANGE FROM THE STAGNANT SUMMER PATTERN AND A POTENTIALLY
MORE POTENT COOL-SEASON PATTERN. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE @ TAF SITES GTR/MEI OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND 0Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25KTS @GTR CALMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 63 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 66 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 66 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 64 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 90 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/KP
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