051
FXUS64 KJAN 242022
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST REASONING TODAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR COOLING OF THE HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL EXIST. DEPENDING ON HOW FOG FORMATION GOES, THERE MAY BE
NEED FOR FORMAL MESSAGING WITH THE GRAPHICS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW AT THIS POINT.
OVERALL, THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM SUMMER IS APPEARING IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING GENERALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE BROADER
REGION, BUT SPLIT FLOW IS NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERN JET STREAM AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CARRY
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND ADD MORE FLOW AND SHEAR TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
SHORTWAVES MAY BRING SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT
THE MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER RIDGING OR TROUGHING WILL BE MORE
ESTABLISHED TO ALLOW MUCH. EITHER WAY, THE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRIER WITHOUT CONCERN FOR HUMIDITY CAUSING DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS.
BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND A MORE FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWINGING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEING A BIT EARLY IN THE TRANSITIONAL TIME OF YEAR, CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURES IS VERY LOW. OFFICIAL GUIDANCE LEANS
INTO A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT AND
STORMS IN OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND OTHER GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLOWER LOW CUTTING OFF AROUND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND REGION (RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST STILL) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, AS IT MARKS
A CHANGE FROM THE STAGNANT SUMMER PATTERN AND A POTENTIALLY MORE
POTENT COOL-SEASON PATTERN. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RELATED TO EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY. /NF/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE @ TAF SITES GTR/MEI OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AROUND 0Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25KTS @GTR CALMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 63 86 61 88 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 65 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/NF/KP
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