791
FXUS64 KJAN 091823
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
123 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING
NORTHWARDS TOWARDS A LANDFALL THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
- GUSTY WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING RELATED TO HURRICANE ISAIAS MAY
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS INCREASED TODAY IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACH TO THE GULF COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH HOT/DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL GULF,
EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AL/FL COASTLINE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISAIAS HAS STRENGTHENED TO CAT. 2 AT 104MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IMPROVING AND
PRESSURE (975MB) CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. GOES EAST INFRARED IMAGERY
CURRENTLY INDICATE SOME INCREASING SHEAR BUT A DEEP BURST OF
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE. CENTER OF CIRCULATION
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF AREA OF OUR FORECAST AREA, MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE FL PANHANDLE JUST EAST OF THE AL/FL STATE LINE. THIS
LANDFALL LOCATION WILL KEEP GREATEST IMPACTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE
DECAYING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH ALABAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND DEGRADES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, A
UNIQUE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DELTA REGION ON THE PERIPHERY
OF OUR CWA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DECAYING CYCLONE AND THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW, SANDWICHING THE WIND FIELD AND CREATING A JET
LIKE MECHANISM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WITH A 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET LIKE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK, DEEP
BOUNDARY MIXING IN THE LOW-LEVELS DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THAT TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE,
MAXIMIZING GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. TROPICAL STORM WIND PROBS ARE IN THE LOW
CATEGORICAL RANGE (10 TO 30 PERCENT) BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDED
TROPICAL HEADLINES. FOR THIS REASON, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR FORREST, JONES, JASPER, NEWTON, NESHOBA, WINSTON,
NOXUBEE, KEMPER, LAUDERDALE, CLARKE, OKTIBBEHA, CLAY AND LOWNDES
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AN ELEVATED WAS ADDED EARLIER
AREAWIDE TO THE HWO GRAPHIC FOR GUSTY WINDS, DUE TO THAT BETTER
SUPPORT IN THE CAMS AND HIGH- RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE WIND PROBS FOR
GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PINE
BELT AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM THIS EVENING.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TOTALS ARE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL, NORTHEAST TO EAST MS WHILE LESS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IN
NORTHWEST, CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MS. THIS IS ALSO DUE TO WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES/TROPICAL RAIN. AS ISAIAS PROGRESS CLOSER, ADDITIONAL
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED SO PLEASE REMAIN UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AS OF 1823Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH 21Z. AS HURRICANE
ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WINDS IN OUR AREA WILL INCREASE IN SPEED, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS OR GREATER FIRST IMPACTING SOUTHERN SITES (KHBG/KPIB) BY
22Z LATER TODAY. AFTER 22Z, CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH MS, CENTRAL MS,
AND EAST MS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS
MULTIPLE TAF SITES AS THE CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. BY 01Z SUNDAY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR. MEI AND GTR WILL STILL SEE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS THE CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 72 58 88 / 80 70 10 0
MERIDIAN 59 71 58 85 / 100 70 10 0
VICKSBURG 63 77 58 91 / 20 40 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 76 58 89 / 90 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 80 59 90 / 10 20 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 73 58 88 / 30 80 10 0
GREENWOOD 60 69 57 87 / 70 100 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ026>033-037>039-046-052-058.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-
057-058-066-074.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-
057-058-066-074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/CR
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