444
FXUS64 KJAN 100744 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.
- FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. ACROSS OUR AREA, THE WESTERNMOST EXTENT OF
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
MISSISSIPPI, AND CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE BREEZY. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PINE BELT.
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS LOW, BUT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE AFTER SUNSET. AS ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, AN AREA OF
STRONGER WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
INDIVIDUAL CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE INDICATED GUSTS UPWARD INTO THE
60-70 MPH RANGE IN POCKETS, WITH SPECIFIC AREAS IMPACTED SHIFTING
SOMEWHAT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHILE SOME OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS
MAY BE A BIT OVERBAKED, CAM ENSEMBLES DO LEND CREDENCE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER GUSTS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST MS
AND EXPANDING TO AREAS AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER DURING THE
MORNING SATURDAY. 12Z REFS PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS
ARE AS HIGH AS 70-80 PERCENT IN THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA BY MID-
MORNING SATURDAY, WITH 30+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES IN THE MERIDIAN
AREA AS EARLY AS 3AM, SHIFTING UP TO THE MS 25 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDDAY. THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING, WITH CHOCTAW AND WEBSTER COUNTIES ADDED TO
A WARNING AS WELL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND MAXIMUM
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DELTA OR I-55 CORRIDOR, THOUGH THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE MOST EXTREME VERSION OF THIS SCENARIO
PRESENTED BY THE 12Z HRRR. REGARDLESS OF THE PEAK WIND GUSTS,
WINDS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOST
AREAS NOT UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING, EXCEPT FOR OUR AR
COUNTIES AND OUR WESTERNMOST LA PARISHES. DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST MS WHERE
THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE LONGEST DURATION, SO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY.
RAIN, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL ACROSS OUR AREA.
REFS PMM FROM THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS A SWATH OF 1-3" ACROSS THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA,
GIVEN THE WORST CASE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4-5" IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. BUT AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, TOTALS DROP OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY. IT IS A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT SOME OF OUR SOUTHEAST
AR, NORTHEAST LA, AND SOUTHWEST MS WILL RECEIVE NO RAIN. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH TEMP RELIEF TO AVOID MAJOR FIRE DANGER ISSUES
IN THE DRY AREAS TOMORROW, BUT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RHS BELOW 30
PERCENT WILL BECOME A REALITY AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
BUT WE'LL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
NOTABLY, IN THE AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER
SOME HEAT RELIEF TOMORROW, FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD AT SOME SITES. HOWEVER,
WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S, THESE CONDITIONS WILL FEEL
MOSTLY TOLERABLE, AND MORNINGS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOL TO
COMFORTABLE. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ISAIAS WILL STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT
KGWO, KGTR, KMEI, KHBG, AND KPIB DURING THE PERIOD. THE EVENTUAL
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL ERODE LOWER CEILINGS NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH KGTR MAY RETAIN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 88 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 59 93 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 58 91 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 61 91 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 59 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 56 91 61 93 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ029>033-038-039.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ009-016-025-026.
AR...NONE.
DL/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page