376
FXUS64 KJAN 101800 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RAISE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS CONTINUES LIFTING AWAY FROM THE
CWA, DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST WAS CANCELLED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED A SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40MPH. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE
ALREADY SHOWING SITES CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
WEST WILL RAISE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN YESTERDAY EVENING AND HAS
WEAKENED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. WHILE
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EAST, STRONG WIND GUST WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG CONSENSUS FOR UP TO 40-50 MPH GUSTS IN THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE DOWN TO CENTRAL MS BY MID-MORNING, WITH 30+ MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY MID-DAY. WHILE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THOSE AREAS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER AN
WIND ADVISORY, WITH ONLY THE COUNTIES OF WESTERN ARK AND WESTERN LA
PARISHES EXCLUDED. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE LONGEST DURATION.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CORRIDOR BEING CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST THUS THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. 1-3 INCHES OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS EXPECTED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, RAINFALL DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST ARK, NORTHEAST LA, AND SOUTHWEST MS LIKELY TO SEE
LITTLE TO NO RAIN. ALL RAIN WILL TAPER OF BY THIS EVENING.
THICK CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
CREATE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH PORTIONS OF THE REGION STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 70S AND
OTHERS REACHING THE LOWER 90S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LEAVES THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVENT FIREWX DANGER
ON SUNDAY, BUT RAPIDLY DROPPING RH VALUES OF UNDER 40% AND HIGH
WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIREWX DANGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
TODAY. /KP/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE IN THE NE AND EAST BEFORE IMPROVING BY 00Z
SUN. THE GUSTY N-NE WIND TO 30KTS WL CONTINUE THIS AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY 00Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 59 91 62 / 30 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 70 57 88 59 / 60 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 84 59 93 62 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 78 58 91 60 / 20 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 85 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 81 59 92 64 / 20 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 75 56 91 61 / 50 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ009-016-025-026.
AR...NONE.
/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page