558
FXUS64 KJAN 111855
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- LIMITED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, USHERING IN
COOLER AND SEASONABLE FALL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THROUGH MONDAY: RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH A PWAT LESS THAN ONE
INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PROMPTING A "LIMITED" FOR FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. /22/
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD IS IN STORE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKING IN DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, NEARING RECORDS, IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
(AVERAGE IS 81). DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS, LOWS WILL COOL TO LOW
60S MOST NIGHTS, WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 50S. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR RH TO DIP INTO THE 20S MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SO
LIMITED FIRE DANGER SHOULD PERSIST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIGHT RAIN
TOTALS FROM ISAIAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND SHOULD LIMIT GREATER FIRE CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE FIRE CONCERNS, WITH
MUCH GREATER WIND POTENTIAL. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD APPROACH 20MPH
WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. CONSIDERING ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RH AND WIND, AN
UPGRADE TO AN ELEVATED COULD BE WARRANTED. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PEAK SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY, BUT
WITH RH STILL IN THE 20S, FIRE DANGER LIKELY PERSISTS. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 93 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 59 92 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 61 93 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 60 93 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 62 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 93 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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