754
FXUS64 KJAN 130352 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AND AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPDATED THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BLENDED
GUIDANCE WAS PICKING UP ON A AREA OF DEEPER MIXING AND LOW RH, BUT
USED RELIABLY DRY GUIDANCE TO ADJUST VALUES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT LIMITED THREAT AREA FOR FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS LOOKS REASONABLE STILL FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO AROUND 25 PERCENT WILL POSE A RISK EVEN
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA, RETURNING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW MOVING INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, BUT WILL
STILL BE COMBATING THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING.
ALSO, GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY TRIES TO SPREAD NORTH, THERE ARE LOW (20%)
PROBABILITIES IN LATEST HREF GUIDANCE FOR DENSE FOG IN FAR
SOUTHERN MS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. GIVEN THIS COULD SPREAD INTO
THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR, HAVE INCLUDED A LIMITED THREAT GRAPHIC
FOR DENSE FOG IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
AND FOR A MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST UPDATE, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A RELATIVELY RARE (FOR OUR AREA) MARGINAL
OUTLOOK FOR FIRE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH THE EXPECTED DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHARP COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY. WE WILL BE REFINING OUR MESSAGING FOR FIRE DANGER
LOCALLY, BUT DO EXPECT MORE ELEVATED WORDING FOR FRIDAY'S FIRE
DANGER AFTER SEVERAL LOWER END/"LIMITED" DAYS THIS WEEK.
/NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED EAST OF OUR CWA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT WL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH
A PWAT LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO HELP KEEP
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM BOTTOMING OUT IN THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S AGAIN TUESDAY AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE EAST. A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. /22/
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET AND DRY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MEAN RIDGE AROUND 592-594DM THAT WILL FLATTEN AND BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
WIND GUSTS UNDER 10 KTS. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS,
SKY COVER WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
SEVERAL SPOTS COULD SEE SOME NEW RECORD TEMPERATURES BEING SET
ESPECIALLY IF WARMER GUIDANCE OVER PERFORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN QUIET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
REGARDING THE FIRE DANGER FOR THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK, THERE IS
ENOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING AND DROP IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITY INTO CRITICAL
LEVELS (25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE) FOR A LIMITED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREAWIDE LIMITED RISK FOR FIRE
DANGER WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEEP
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO
DIP (20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SO
LIMITED FIRE DANGER SHOULD PERSIST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIGHT RAIN
TOTALS FROM ISAIAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND SHOULD LIMIT GREATER FIRE CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STOUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL
CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. AT THE VERY
LEAST, COOL DOWN STILL REMAINS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THAT MORNING AND LOWS THAT NIGHT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 (48-52F) TO MID TO UPPER 50S (53-57F) TO THE
SOUTH. SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD AREAWIDE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DROUGHT STRESSED VEGETATION AND
LONGSTANDING LIMITED RAINFALL WILL HELP INCREASE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. 1035-1045MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDWEST, LEADING TO 6-8MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT GUSTY GRADIENT WIND/WIND GUSTS
REACHING 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN AND A FIRE DANGER
GRAPHIC/ELEVATED RISK WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS
PERSIST. FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS AROUND 15%) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST MS, SOUTHWEST MS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA
HEADING INTO MONDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES, EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE BR OR FG NEAR KHBG AND KPIB AROUND 10Z-14Z TIME
FRAME TUESDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 93 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 58 92 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 62 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 58 94 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 93 64 94 / 0 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 65 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/NF
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