935
FXUS64 KJAN 142046
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A STRONG, DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
- VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND WARM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PERSISTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR RECORD
WARMTH, AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE, A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE NEAR TERM. AS THIS HAPPENS, A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS IN THE RAPID
TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGE TO STRONG TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
GIVEN THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT, THE COMBINATION OF DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE FIRE DANGER RISK, AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE
FIRE PRODUCT HEADLINES. IN ADDITION, WE WILL TO CONTINUE MESSAGE
THE LIMITED GRADIENT WIND THREAT THROUGH OUR GRAPHICS, AND
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THREATS AND WIND RELATED
HEADLINES. OTHERWISE, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL BE ARRIVING.
LOOKING AHEAD, IT APPEARS THE LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL BE TEMPORARY IN THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN,
SO EXPECT RIDGING TO QUICKLY RETURN BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP IN RESPONSE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR GETTING RAINFALL IS QUITE LOW WITH THIS PATTERN. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AS OF 1723Z, ALL SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY.
AFTER 09Z THURSDAY, SEVERAL SOUTHERN TAF SITES (HEZ, PIB, AND HBG)
WILL START TO SEE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR/LIFR STATUS DUE TO A LOW
STRATUS CLOUD DECK AND PATCHY FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES
THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. AFTER 15Z, CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z THURSDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 61 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 92 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 63 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 66 93 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 65 94 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/CR
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