307
FXUS64 KJAN 142326 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A STRONG, DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
- VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND WARM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PERSISTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR RECORD
WARMTH, AND AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE, A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE NEAR TERM. AS THIS HAPPENS, A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS IN THE RAPID
TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGE TO STRONG TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
GIVEN THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT, THE COMBINATION OF DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE FIRE DANGER RISK, AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE
FIRE PRODUCT HEADLINES. IN ADDITION, WE WILL TO CONTINUE MESSAGE
THE LIMITED GRADIENT WIND THREAT THROUGH OUR GRAPHICS, AND
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THREATS AND WIND RELATED
HEADLINES. OTHERWISE, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL BE ARRIVING.
LOOKING AHEAD, IT APPEARS THE LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL BE TEMPORARY IN THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN,
SO EXPECT RIDGING TO QUICKLY RETURN BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP IN RESPONSE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR GETTING RAINFALL IS QUITE LOW WITH THIS PATTERN. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WL BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH UNTIL 14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 61 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 92 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 63 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 66 93 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 65 94 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
/22
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