885
FXUS64 KJAN 151743
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
WORSENED FIRE DANGER AND WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO THE AREA TOMORROW
ON FRIDAY.
- VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THROUGH EARLY MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY: MORNING SURFACE AND GOES EAST WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATE MEAN RIDGE AROUND 592-594DM CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN
92-96F RANGE AND LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES IN EAST MS TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST DELTA) WILL PERSIST. ADDITIONAL
RECORD HIGHS COULD TIE OR BE ECLIPSED TODAY. THERE REMAINS
EFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING/LOW HUMIDITY INTO CRITICAL LEVELS (25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE) FOR CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S TODAY. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OF RETURN FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT.
LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY): FALL
FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS LIKELY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS/UPPER JET DIVING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL AND POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STOUT, DRY COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (36-45F). CANNOT RULE OUT A ROUGE SHOWER BUT
OVERALL MAJORITY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. COOL DOWN REMAINS LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY (72-78F IN THE
DELTA AND 83-91F IN SOUTHEAST OF THE DELTA), WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S (61-66F) THAT MORNING AND LOWS THAT NIGHT MID TO UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 (45-50F) TO MID TO UPPER 50S (50-
53F) TO THE SOUTH. WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT STRESSED VEGETATION, THIS
STRONG GUSTY FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY,
INTERSTATE 20 AROUND MIDDAY AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
1030-1040MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID WEST, LEADING TO 6-8MB PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTANT GUSTY GRADIENT WIND OF 20-25MPH SUSTAINED AND
WIND GUSTS REACHING 30-35MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY FIRE RELATED HEADLINES. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A DAY 2 ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. THERE WILL EFFICIENT MIXING BUT
HUMIDITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY, SO ELEVATED GRAPHIC
STILL FITS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CUTS OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL AMPLIFY, WITH THE AXIS OVER THE
ARKLATEX. SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD
AREAWIDE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (HIGHS OF 69-74F SATURDAY AND 70-
78F SUNDAY AND LOWS OF 41-45F NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO 46-50F TO
THE SOUTH). QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK, WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING (TROUGH OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST US AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST). LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW AND DEEP DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL LEAD TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES (LOW 80S EARLY WEEK TO MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK)
AND LOWS BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE. WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT, STRESSED
VEGETATION AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY NEARING CRITICAL LEVELS BY MID
WEEK (25 TO 35 PERCENT), FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY PERSIST. HOLDING
OFF INTRODUCING ANYTHING FOR NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AS OF 1742Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
09Z, SOUTHERN TAF SITES (KHBG, KPIB, AND KHEZ) WILL START TO SEE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR STATUS DUE TO LOW STRATUS
AND PATCH DENSE FOG, WITH VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH MS THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY. AFTER
14Z, CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR. WINDS BE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BY 13Z FRIDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH OUR AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 81 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 61 85 49 69 / 0 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 62 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 90 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 80 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 65 70 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 73 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/CR
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