680
FXUS62 KKEY 151505
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1005 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 914 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
ABOVE AVERAGE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL USHER IN THIS DECEMBER MORNING
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED
CONVERGENCE, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA, AND BROADLY VEERING WINDS
WILL SUPPORT SHALLOW, FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. CONDITIONS ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN WILL BE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. A NOTICEABLE WIND GRADIENT
EXISTS BETWEEN BAY SIDE, BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS, AND OCEAN SIDE,
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.
EXPECT MORE TURBULENT WINDS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH OCCASIONAL
TO FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S TODAY.
THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED A PWAT VERY CLOSE TO THE 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY, WHICH MATCHED THE INCREASED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE STRAITS. A DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, BUT THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WAS SAMPLED NEAR 800 MB.
SHOWERS THAT MOVE ONSHORE WILL BE CAPABLE OF SLIGHT RAINFALL
TOTALS, ESTIMATED NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THEIR MOST INTENSE.
OVERALL, A SLIGHTLY DAMP DECEMBER DAY TODAY. THE WAVE NEAR
HISPANIOLA WILL COMPLICATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, SO PLEASE STAY
TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 914 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, INCLUDING HAWK CHANNEL
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
EARLY WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN SLOWLY SLACKENING BREEZES. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 914 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, THEREFORE, VCSH IS NOT INCLUDED AT EITHER TERMINAL BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2010, THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 46F AND 45F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON, RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872, AND TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON
DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 78 69 79 71 / 30 20 30 30
MARATHON 78 69 79 71 / 30 30 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page