127
FXUS62 KKEY 151948
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
248 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SURFACE ANALYSES THIS MORNING PLACED A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO LINGER OVER ONTARIO WHILE AN INVERTED
TROPICAL TOUGH WAS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA. THE RESULT ACROSS KEYS
NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY WAS SHALLOW, SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND HAWK CHANNEL AMIDST FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES. HOWEVER, A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
FLORIDA BAY AND THE STRAITS WILL KEEP WINDS CHAOTIC ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT AND SUPPORT BROAD WIND SPEED AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE KEYS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TOMORROW AS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS TO CHANGE.
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL APPEAR RATHER
STAGNANT DESPITE A COUPLE OF NOTABLE CHANGES. THE ONTARIO SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE, THE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SINK
SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO SLACKEN TO
FRESH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SST
GRADIENT WILL PERSIST AND DESPITE A WEAKER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT,
THE GENERAL WIND FIELD SUPPORTING BROAD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOLIDLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER END ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN GIVEN THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHALLOW AND FAST MOVING.
MODEL ENSEMBLES PREDICTED THE NEXT DECEMBER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS AROUND THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST TO
THE LAST BURST OF COLD WEATHER, THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT
APPEARS TO BE MODIFIED CONTINENTAL, SO TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
DROP ONLY A FEW DEGREES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DROP TO SLIGHT OR
NEAR NIL FOLLOWING THE FIRST FRONT, BUT EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
LINGER IN THE MID 60S BEFORE A SECOND, REINFORCING COLD FRONT
SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, INCLUDING HAWK CHANNEL
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD REGION OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO FUEL FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH
WILL SINK INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN DURING THE WORK WEEK
WHICH WILL SUPPORT SLACKENING BREEZES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK AND BRING A RETURN OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN, THEREFORE, VCSH IS NOT INCLUDED AT EITHER TERMINAL BUT A
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2010, THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 46F AND 45F WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON, RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872, AND TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON
DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 79 71 79 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON 69 79 71 79 / 30 40 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ042>044-
052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
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