280
FXUS62 KKEY 170357
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1057 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
IT HAS BEEN MORE ACTIVE THAN WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT UPON WALKING IN
FOR THIS EVENINGS SHIFT. LET'S BREAK DOWN WHY. FIRST OFF WE STILL
HAVE A BROAD, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIME COAST. THIS HAS BEEN INTERACTING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER AND NOW GREATER
ANTILLES. THIS MAINTAINED FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG BREEZES, WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE WAS INCREASING THANKS TO
THE INVERTED TROUGH, ALLOWED FOR INITIALLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE KEYS, IT'S
NOT ONLY ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, BUT ALSO
INSTABILITY. TONIGHT'S SOUNDING SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE MLCAPE OF
1000 J/KG. NOW THIS MAY NOT SEEM LIKE MUCH, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE
SEE MUCH MORE INSTABILITY IN THE SUMMER. BUT THIS IS DECEMBER, WE
USUALLY DO NOT SEE THIS UNSTABLE OF AN AIRMASS. AS A RESULT, NOT
ONLY HAVE WE HAD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SEVERAL OF THEM
WERE STRONG. A HANDFUL OF MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND A FEW
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE NEEDED TONIGHT.
THE ACTIVITY HAS QUIETED DOWN FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT THERE
IS STILL A STRONG CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DISTANT
SOUTHWEST STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE, A GOOD SWATH OF
SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER KEYS. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE
KAMX RADAR, THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP. WE WERE ON THE FENCE ABOUT
RAISING RAIN CHANCES, BUT GIVEN THE CLEAR GAP SEEN UPSTREAM, IT
WOULD BE TOO LATE TO RAISE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE, WILL LET THE 40 PERCENT RIDE FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, AGAIN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION, WINDS HAVE
SLOWLY SUBSIDED AND WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS FURTHER DECREASE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS FURTHER DECREASE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND PASS THROUGH AT TIMES AND MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR SUDDEN AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY. FROM SYNOPSIS: AN INVERTED TROUGH IS NEARING THE BAHAMAS
WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC MOVES FURTHER
EAST. THE COMBINATION OF WHICH IS ALLOWING BREEZES TO GRADUALLY
SLACKEN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A PLUME OF SHALLOW
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MID WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REGENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. WITHIN
QUICK PASSING RAIN BANDS EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VIS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE EYW TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE,
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SLACKENING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JACOBSON
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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