404
FXUS62 KKEY 171627
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1127 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE KEYS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
ONGOING TODAY. YESTERDAY EVENING, A WEEK INVERTED TROUGH NOW
LOCATED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF CUBA BROUGHT AN INFLUX OF MOIST
TROPICAL AIR OVER THE KEYS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SURROUNDING AND CROSSING THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY RESERVED TO THE OUTER STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR CUBA. CURRENTLY, KBYX RADAR OBSERVES THESE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LOWER KEYS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING GENERALLY
TOWARDS THE WEST AS THEY DECAY. WHILE A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST, THE INVERTED TROUGH TOOK
OVER CONTROL OF OUR BACKGROUND WINDS. OFFSHORE OBSERVATION
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF CURRENTLY CLOCK MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME MILD CONDITIONS
OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S AND APPROACHING 80. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING
TO SLACKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES WEST.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER AROUND AS CIMSS MIMIC PW NOTES
VALUES ABOVE ONE AND HALF INCHES UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS IN THE
BAHAMAS. THUS, 40 POPS ARE HELD IN THE SHORT TERM AS SHOWERS WAX
AND WANE AMONG MOISTURE UNDULATIONS. NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST
ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE HAWK CHANNEL
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS IN COMBINATION WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES TODAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND THE INVERTED TROUGH PROGRESSES WEST THROUGH THE KEYS, BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. SHALLOW
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REGENERATE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS SO
VCSH HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT FOR THE TIME BEING, ALTHOUGH LATER TONIGHT
IS RE-INTRODUCED FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER IMPACTS. TEMPOS FOR LOWER
CEILINGS AND RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING LEAVES ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF NEAR 20
KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2006, A DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.24" WAS MEASURED
IN MARATHON. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 72 80 72 / 30 30 30 20
MARATHON 79 72 81 71 / 40 40 40 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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