945
FXUS62 KKEY 180345
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
THINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DIFFERENT THIS EVENING WHEN COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO! AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, WE COULD SEE DISTANT
LIGHTNING FROM THE OFFICE. NOW, OUR KBYX RADAR IS ONLY DETECTING
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED, LIGHT, SHALLOW SHOWERS THAT ARE TRACKING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS. SATELLITE
HAS NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING IN THESE SHOWERS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS PRETTY UNSTABLE CONSIDERING WE'RE IN THE SECOND
HALF OF DECEMBER RIGHT NOW. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE SOUNDING FROM THE EVENING BALLOON LAUNCH SHOWED AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT HAD US WONDERING WHAT MONTH IT IS. THE CALCULATED PWAT WAS
1.43 INCHES, WHICH IS JUST TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. THE CIMSS MIMIC PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WERE
SIMILAR, RANGING FROM APPROXIMATELY 1.35 INCHES TO 1.70 INCHES.
SIMPLY PUT, THINGS ARE DAMP OUT THERE. ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY NUMBER
THAT CAME FROM THE SOUNDING TONIGHT IS THE MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUE
NEAR 1300 J/KG. SOME CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE MAY HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT IS STILL OUT THERE,
BUT THINGS LOOK A LOT LESS SPICY TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. A LOT OF
THE MOISTURE IS CONTAINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS, SO THESE SHOWERS
DON'T HAVE THE CHANCE TO BUILD UP
SPEAKING OF MOISTURE, SURFACE OBS AS OF 10 PM EST SHOWED
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS GIVES US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 90%, SO IT'S
NO WONDER WE HAVE WALKED OUTSIDE THIS EVENING AND FOUND OURSELVES
QUESTIONING THE CALENDAR. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, A HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF
NEW ENGLAND SLIDING DEEPER INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH FLATTENING AND PROGRESSING WEST INTO THE GULF WILL RESULT
IN GRADUALLY SLACKENING BREEZES THROUGH MID WEEK. SHALLOW TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. LATE IN THE WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST CROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REGENERATE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 932 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRAY SHOWER COULD MOVE OVER
EITHER AIRFIELD, BUT THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THAT HAPPENING
WARRANTED REMOVING VCSH FROM THE TAFS. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 80 71 78 / 30 30 30 20
MARATHON 72 81 71 79 / 40 40 40 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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