781
FXUS62 KKEY 200936
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
436 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
WE HAD SOME LOW STRATUS AND RESIDUAL FOG LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS
FOG BANK AND STRATUS BANK IS QUICKLY SHRINKING IN SIZE AND
SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS A SMALL FOG BANK PINNED ALONG THE
CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND SHIFTING SOUTH. THIS NEW FOG
BANK IS TRAILING CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA AND STEADILY MARCHING TOWARDS THE KEYS THIS
HOUR. IT TOO IS SHRINKING IN SIZE AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
IT'LL REACH EVEN OUR OUTER WATERS. MEANWHILE, THERE REMAINS A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WHERE A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS PERSIST. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY
BREEZES.
FORECAST
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
FRESHENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TRAIL THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS BUT
THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED AT LEAST
FOR THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOISTEN UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW
IT'S A LITTLE TOO SOON TO KNOW IF CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER
FOG BANK, GIVEN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FRESHENING OF
BREEZES THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, WE ARE EXPECTING A SURGE IN DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD
SCOUR OUT THE SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, WE WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S TODAY GIVEN THE FULL SUNSHINE AND LACK OF FOG. THE EFFECTS OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUICKLY FELT THOUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGES INTO THE KEYS. GIVEN THE
NATURE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS, OUR
WINDS MAY BE A TAD UNDERDONE AND WE COULD SEE A BRIEF BREEZY
PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A SPRAWLING HIGH DIPPING OUT OF CANADA
WHICH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ANY ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL AT
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
MONDAY AND HOLD INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. IN ADDITION, AS
THE HIGH PUSHES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND OUR WINDS CONTINUE TO
CLOCK AROUND MORE FROM THE EAST, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.
AS A RESULT WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING INTO CHRISTMAS AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
A WEAK FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING, RESULTING IN MODESTLY FRESHENING NORTHERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE DAY. A SECONDARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRESS THROUGH
THE KEYS TONIGHT, REINFORCING THE FIRST FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECOND FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES, RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD, BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING INCREASE CLOUD
COVER LATER TODAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THAT CIGS STAY JUST ABOVE CRITERIA FOR LOWERED CATEGORIES, SO
PRECISE DETAILS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE AND
SHORT TERM UPDATES AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL BACK
NORTH NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER TODAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN 2022, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.70" WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. PRECIPITATION RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 63 70 61 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 78 61 70 61 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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