628
FXUS62 KKEY 201958
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
258 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
FRESHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE STRONGER FLOW AND
BETTER MIXING, COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, HAS CLEARED THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG THAT WAS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER
THIS MORNING. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND
ASSOCIATED MIXING TONIGHT TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FELT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGES INTO THE KEYS.
GIVEN THE NATURE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS, OUR WINDS MAY BE A TAD UNDERDONE AND WE COULD SEE A BRIEF
BREEZY PERIOD OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH (WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE). WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 70S.
NO RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. /12
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST REGION SUNDAY,
THEN A SERIES OF MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MASSIVE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY
BECOMES ORIENTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHICH RESULTS IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TRANSITIONING TO AN
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO A PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STEADILY IMPROVES ALONG WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A PAIR OF UPPER
TROFS PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN STATES. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES, BUT THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DESPITE PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES). HAVE OPTED FOR NOW TO GO WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND DRY AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY AS THIS POINT
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF AN APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 70S THEN TREND TO MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THEN
TREND TO LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SIMILAR
VALUES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR TONIGHT AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL KEEP ON EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. IT WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY BE A SHORT DURATION SCA IF IT WERE TO BECOME NECESSARY. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NO IMPACTS OTHER
THAN THE SCEC WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. /12
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE IFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH EYW AND MTH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, RATHER
BRISK AT 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THEN
LIGHTER (AROUND 10 KNOTS) LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...29
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....12
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