262
FXUS62 KKEY 210854
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
354 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A MUCH QUIETER AND LESS EVENTFUL OVERNIGHT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
SECONDARY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS. AS EXPECTED WE HAVE AN ONGOING NOCTURNAL SURGE COMING OFF
THE MAINLAND AND IS PUSHING ACROSS MAINLY THE WATERS EAST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WE HAVE SPEEDS NEAR
20 KNOTS BEING REPORTED AT LONG KEY AND ALLIGATOR REEF LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS OF 2 AM ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
24 HOURS AGO WITH DEW POINTS ARE 10 POINTS LOWER, MAKING
CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.
FORECAST
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIVING OUT OF CANADA WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TODAY AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OUR
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLOCK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUTOFF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND OUR TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID
70S BY SUNDAY, WHICH SURPRISINGLY WILL STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR LATE DECEMBER.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SEABORAD, AN INTERESTING INTERACTION WILL OCCUR. ALOFT, AN
ENERGETIC POLAR JET WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INDUCE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE. THIS
WILL PINCH THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
CREATE A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH WILL EXTEND
DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT BREEZES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT
MAINLY OUR EASTERNMOST WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER A NEW SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHOVE
EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY EXPAND EQUATORWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD AND GRADUAL FRESHENING OF EASTERLY BREEZES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW
POINTS A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES (IF YOU DON'T WANT
SLIGHTLY MUGGY CONDITIONS).
IN THE SHORT TERM, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL. HOWEVER,
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS WE COULD
SEE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY A SHARP RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAW IN A DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE. WHILE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND A
POTENTIALLY WET CHRISTMAS, WILL HOLD BACK FOR NOW. THE POTENTIAL
PATTERN SETTING UP IS NOT TYPICAL OF DECEMBER AND MODELS COULD BE
OVER PLAYING RAIN CHANCES SIMPLY BASED ON MOISTURE WITHOUT A
SUBSTANTIAL SOURCE OF LIFT TO ACT UPON IT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
AN ONGOING LOCALIZED NOCTURNAL SURGE OFF THE MAINLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DEEPER GULF WATERS. A BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN BREEZES GRADUALLY CLOCKING AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE CAROLINAS SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES. A SECOND,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARDS
MIDWEEK RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF FRESHENING BREEZES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER REMAINING IN PLACE. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 58F WAS RECORDED IN 1901 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 70 61 74 66 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 70 61 74 67 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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