991
FXUS62 KKEY 051511
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 850 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
MORNING WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS RATHER
UNEVENTFUL, IN CONTRAST TO THE MID-LATITUDE 980 MB CYCLONE
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN GENERATING WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, THE KEYS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MATURE CYCLONE IS VISIBLE ON
GOES-16 SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS PASSING ACROSS TALLAHASSEE WITH AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF PASSAGE ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS AROUND 6 TO 7
PM. FIRST OBSERVATIONS OF THE FRONT ARE VISIBLE ON KBYX RADAR
JUST WEST OF TAMPA.
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS FOR KEY WEST WILL BE BEST DESCRIBED AS PRE
FRONTAL. DEW POINTS AT KEY WEST AND KEY LARGO ALREADY ROSE TO THE
MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING TOWARDS THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL, THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE
ATLANTIC HIGH AND THE 980 MB LOW ARE STILL ENABLING GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THE MORNING KKEY SOUNDING SAMPLED AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH VEERING WINDS AND PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 50TH
PERCENTILE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT BEFORE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WINDS;
NORTHERLIES WILL PREVAIL AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR
THE GULFSIDE WATERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 850 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH DIXIE ALLEY AND
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT MODESTLY SLACKENING BREEZES
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
LEADING TO FRESHENING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR GULFSIDE WATERS. WEAKER HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GULF AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW
BREEZES TO SLACKEN TO GENTLE BY SATURDAY. A SECOND, LESS DEFINED,
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE KEYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 850 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS COLLAPSING AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWEST. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BRINGING WITH IT FRESHENING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BREEZES AND SUB
VFR CEILINGS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2010, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53F WAS
LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 68 74 62 / 10 10 0 0
MARATHON 83 68 76 61 / 10 10 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ042>044-
052>054-072>074.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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