658
FXUS62 KKEY 051959
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
259 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN KEY WEST CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS PRE
FRONTAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OBSERVED ON GOES-E SATELLITE JUST
EAST OF TAMPA, AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM KBYX DETECTED ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
ACROSS THE KEYS ARE VEERING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLACKENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SAFELY WITHIN THE LOWER 80S, MAKING FOR A HUMID,
ALBEIT UNEVENTFUL AFTERNOON.
ZOOMING OUT FROM LOCAL WEATHER REVEALS A MUCH MORE CHAOTIC PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A WELL-DEVELOPED MID LATITUDE CYCLONE CENTERED
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE IMMINENT COLD FRONT.
AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED BY THE SPC FOR THE
EAST CAROLINAS WHILE WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN ALL, THIS CYCLONE IS FORCING
YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THAT WILL CAUSE A CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR THE KEYS.
THE EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS
EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OBSERVATIONS OF THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NEAR TALLAHASSEE, TAMPA, AND PENSACOLA SAMPLED DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SLACKEN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS.
ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES LEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
MARCH, FOR THEY WILL NOT LAST THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S COLD
FRONT, CURRENTLY SEEN ON GOES-W SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS JUST WEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY TIMED FOR NEXT WEEK
MONDAY. COMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND HOW THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S, POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPPER 50S, FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEW POINT SPREAD IS A BIT MORE
VARIED, SHOWING AN 8 TO 10F RANGE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. POPS
ARE ALSO MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DO NOT SHOW AS COHESIVE A FRONT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT
HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST. PLEASE
CHECK LATER FOR MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP.
FOLLOWING THE SECOND COLD FRONT, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE A BIT
MORE HUMID WITH A RETURN TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS HEADLINES
ARE PRESENT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE CWA. FROM SYNOPSIS, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS. AFTER A PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES POST FRONT, LIKELY REQUIRING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS INTO THE GULF. EXPECT BREEZES TO SLACKEN TO GENTLE,
OCCASIONALLY LIGHT, THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT WINDS TO TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE EVENING BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DELIVER
BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SUB VFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY CEILINGS, WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2010, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 53F WAS
LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 74 62 74 / 10 0 0 0
MARATHON 68 76 61 76 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page