886
FXUS62 KKEY 060402
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW EVENINGS, TONIGHT HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
EXCITING FROM BEHIND THE COMPUTER. THE COMBINATION OF RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA HAS ALLOWED US TO WATCH A DRY COLD FRONT TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, WE HAVE SEEN A
DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT TELL US THE FRONT
IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH. AT 5 PM EST, THE ASOS AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A TEMPERATURE OF 79F, A DEW POINT
OF 75F, AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 8 MPH. AT 10 PM EST, THE
TEMPERATURE WAS 73F, THE DEWPOINT WAS 63F, AND THE BREEZE WAS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE AIR TEMPERATURE ISN'T A GREAT
INDICATOR OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE DEW POINT AND WIND ARE
BETTER. WHILE THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING CALCULATED MID-
LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 846 J/KG, THE MOISTURE PROFILE DIDN'T SEEM
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SO, IT ISN'T
MUCH OF A SURPRISE THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM THIS EVENING
DISSIPATED QUICKLY AS IT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, THE KBYX RADAR IS
FOLLOWING SOME VERY DISTANT SHOWERS JUST PAST OUR WATERS BEYOND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES OR UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSVERSE THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN BREEZES, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST WED MAR 5 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSVERSE THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT, AND FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BUILD IN. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO THE GULF. EXPECT
BREEZES TO SLACKEN TO GENTLE, OCCASIONALLY LIGHT, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AT THE START OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 66 74 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 66 74 61 76 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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