805
FXUS62 KKEY 060939
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
439 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LAST EVENING, KBYX RADAR IS NOT
DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GOES 16 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS HAVING CRASHED
FROM WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY IN THE MID 70S INTO THE LOWER 60S
NOW THIS MORNING. MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING
MAINLY NORTHWEST BREEZES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH ISLAND CHAIN
COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 15 TO 20 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP GULF
WATERS, THERE IS A BUOY REPORTING A SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 23
KNOTS INDICATING THE STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT OF THE EXPECTED WINDS AND
SEAS.
FORECAST
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CAN BE SUMMED UP QUITE
EASILY. WE EXPECT TO BE ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH UPS AND DOWNS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LAST EVENING, NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE TO FRESHEN THIS MORNING LEADING TO ANOTHER BREEZY PERIOD.
THIS COOL SNAP WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S TODAY WITH MID 70S FOR FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S FOR THE UPPER KEYS. THE WATER TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS STILL QUITE COOL IN THE LOWER 70S AND
WITH THE STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE COOL WATERS,
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING APPRECIABLY TODAY.
VAST DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE EMERGING OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZES TO SLACKEN TONIGHT AS A RESULT WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
ANOTHER LOW FORMING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST, STRENGTHENING AS
IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WHILE GUIDANCE STILL DISAGREES ON EXACT
TIMING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THIS LOW, THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE KEYS FOR
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER COOL SNAP TO
MUCH OF FLORIDA. IN THE INTERIM, EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S) WITH RAIN CHANCES CREEPING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, THE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS NEXT FRONT
WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ONE THAT JUST WENT THROUGH. THEREFORE,
CHANCES (30%) OF RAIN HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE AREA
KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (10%). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. FROM SYNOPSIS, IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN MODESTLY
SLACKENING BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THOUGH, SOME
PORTIONS OF THE KEYS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BREEZES SLACKEN EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLIDES
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. A
SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DRY AIR ENCOMPASSING OUR AREA WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, HAIL SMALLER THAN 3/4" FELL IN KEY WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 72 62 75 70 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 74 61 76 71 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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