418
FXUS62 KKEY 061953
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
253 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
MOSTLY SUNNY, EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS MARK THE FIRST THURSDAY OF
MARCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR SCANS OBSERVE ONLY SALT
SPRAY AND WILDLIFE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND GOES 16 DAY CLOUD
PHASE RGBS ARE TRACKING FEW TO SCATTERED STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE
WATERS. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN DROPPED INTO THE UPPER
50S WITH A COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER 50S, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER KEYS. MARINE PLATFORMS AT THE REEF AND BAYSIDE TRACKED WINDS
DECREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, AND A PAIR OF OFFSHORE
WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET AND SUNRISE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT TRAVELED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, THE WATERS AROUND THE KEYS WARMED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT OVERNIGHT LOWS DEEP INTO THE 50S; EXCEPT FOR THE
UPPER KEYS, WHERE A COUPLE MORE SUB-60F DAYS ARE LIKELY THIS
SEASON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DEFINE
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THOSE
LOOKING FOR BOATING DAYS THIS WEEKEND, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
THE BEST BETS.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. A
MESSY LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
FRAGMENT WHILE ATTEMPTING TO CROSS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS MODELED TO BREAK OFF INTO A CUTOFF LOW
AND MAKE ITS WAY ALONG THE US AND MEXICAN BORDER TOWARDS THE GULF
STATES THIS WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
TOWARDS THE KEYS. CURRENT STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT
AGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS, STRENGTH OF WINDS, AND EXACTLY HOW
MUCH DEW POINTS WILL DROP BEHIND THIS FRONT. HOWEVER, MODEL
CONSENSUS IS CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING BREEZY WORDING TO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY INCREASE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE KEYS.
AFTERWARDS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEFINE WEATHER OVER THE
KEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US INTO THE ATLANTIC AND MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERNMOST
MARINE ZONES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT. FROM SYNOPSIS, MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A PAIR OF WEAK
OFFSHORE WIND SURGES WILL KEEP BREEZES ELEVATED EARLY TONIGHT, AND
OFFSHORE FLOW TOMORROW MORNING WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE BREEZES
BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT SLACKENING BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
POSSIBLE VARIABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FRESHEN
BREEZES, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES ARE INCREASING, AND THE NEXT FRONT MAY
BRING GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL OSCILLATE DOWNWARDS
WHILE SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY, WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED MODEST
SURGE TOWARDS DAWN. MODERATE CROSSWINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1957, HAIL SMALLER THAN 3/4" FELL IN KEY WEST
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 63 77 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 62 76 71 81 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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